The impact of closing emergency departments on mortality in emergencies: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In England the demand for emergency care is increasing, while there is also a staffing shortage. This has implications for quality of care and patient safety. One solution may be to concentrate resources on fewer sites by closing or downgrading emergency departments (EDs). Our aim was to quantify the impact of such reorganisation on population mortality. METHODS: We undertook a controlled interrupted time series analysis to detect the impact of closing or downgrading five EDs, which occurred due to concerns regarding sustainability. We obtained mortality data from 2007 to 2014 using national databases. To establish ED resident catchment populations, estimated journey times by road were supplied by the Department for Transport. Other major changes in the emergency and urgent care system were determined by analysis of annual NHS Trust reports in each geographical area studied. Our main outcome measures were mortality and case fatality for a set of 16 serious emergency conditions. RESULTS: For residents in the areas affected by closure, journey time to the nearest ED increased (median change 9 min, range 0-25 min). We found no statistically reliable evidence of a change in overall mortality following reorganisation of ED care in any of the five areas or overall (+2.5% more deaths per month on average; 95% CI -5.2% to +10.2%; p=0.52). There was some evidence to suggest that, on average across the five areas, there was a small increase in case fatality, an indicator of the 'risk of death' (+2.3%, 95% CI +0.9% to+3.6%; p<0.001), but this may have arisen due to changes in hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that reorganisation of emergency care was associated with a change in population mortality in the five areas studied. Further research should establish the economic consequences and impact on patient experience and neighbouring hospitals.

Investigating SOcial Competence and Isolation in children with Autism taking part in LEGO-based therapy clubs In School Environments (I-SOCIALISE): study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Social skills training interventions for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) typically focus on a skills deficit model rather than building on existing skills or encouraging the child to seek their own solutions. LEGO-based therapy is a child-oriented intervention to help improve social interactional skills and reduce isolation. The therapy is designed for school-age children with ASD and uses group-based play in a school setting to encourage peer relationships and social learning. Despite the reported potential benefits of LEGO-based therapy in a prior randomised controlled trial (RCT) and its adoption by many schools, the evidence to support its effectiveness on the social and emotional well-being of children with ASD is limited and includes no assessment of cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This multicentre, pragmatic, cluster RCT will randomise 240 participants (aged 7-15 years) with a clinical diagnosis of ASD to receive usual care or LEGO-based therapy with usual care. Cluster randomisation will be conducted on a school level, randomising each school as opposed to each individual child within a school. All prospective participants will be screened for eligibility before assenting to the study (with parents giving informed consent on behalf of their child). All participants will be followed up at 20 and 52 weeks after randomisation to assess for social, emotional and behavioural changes. The primary outcome measure is the social skills subscale of the Social Skills Improvement System completed by a teacher or teaching assistant associated with participating children at the 20-week follow-up time point. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained via the University of York Research Ethics Committee. The results of the trial will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and will be disseminated to participating families, education practitioners and the third sector including voluntary and community organisations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN64852382; Pre-results.

Selecting pregnant or postpartum women with suspected pulmonary embolism for diagnostic imaging: the DiPEP diagnostic study with decision-analysis modelling.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a leading cause of death in pregnancy and post partum, but the symptoms of PE are common in normal pregnancy. Simple diagnostic tests are needed to select women for diagnostic imaging. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the accuracy, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers for selecting pregnant or postpartum women with a suspected PE for imaging. DESIGN: An expert consensus study to develop new clinical decision rules, a case-control study of women with a diagnosed PE or a suspected PE, a biomarker study of women with a suspected PE or diagnosed deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) and decision-analysis modelling. SETTING: Emergency departments and consultant-led maternity units. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant/postpartum women with a diagnosed PE from any hospital reporting to the UK Obstetric Surveillance System research platform and pregnant/postpartum women with a suspected PE or diagnosed DVT at 11 prospectively recruiting sites. INTERVENTIONS: Clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity, specificity, area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health-care costs. RESULTS: The primary analysis involved 181 women with PE and 259 women without PE in the case-control study and 18 women with DVT, 18 with PE and 247 women without either in the biomarker study. Most clinical features showed no association with PE. The AUROC curves for the clinical decision rules were as follows: primary consensus, 0.626; sensitive consensus, 0.620; specific consensus, 0.589; PE rule-out criteria, 0.621; simplified Geneva score, 0.579; Wells's PE criteria (permissive), 0.577; and Wells's PE criteria (strict), 0.732. The sensitivities and specificities of the D-dimer measurement were 88.4% and 8.8%, respectively, using a standard threshold, and 69.8% and 32.8%, respectively, using a pregnancy-specific threshold. Previous venous thromboembolism, long-haul travel, multiple pregnancy, oxygen saturation, recent surgery, temperature and PE-related chest radiograph abnormality were predictors of PE on multivariable analysis. We were unable to derive a rule through multivariable analysis or recursive partitioning with adequate accuracy. The AUROC curves for the biomarkers were as follows: activated partial thromboplastin time - 0.669, B-type natriuretic peptide - 0.549, C-reactive protein - 0.542, Clauss fibrinogen - 0.589, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay D-dimer - 0.668, Innovance D-dimer (Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Products GmbH, distributed by Sysmex UK Ltd, Milton Keynes, UK) - 0.651, mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MRproANP) - 0.524, prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 - 0.562, plasmin-antiplasmin - 0.639, Prothombin time - 0.613, thrombin generation lag time - 0.702, thrombin generation endogenous potential - 0.559, thrombin generation peak - 0.596, thrombin generation time to peak - 0.655, tissue factor - 0.531 and troponin - 0.597. The repeat analysis excluding women who had received anticoagulation was limited by the small number of women with PE (n = 4). The health economic analysis showed that a strategy of scanning all women with a suspected PE accrued more QALYs and incurred fewer costs than any selective strategy based on a clinical decision rule and was therefore the dominant strategy. LIMITATIONS: The findings apply specifically to the diagnostic assessment of women with a suspected PE in secondary care. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers do not accurately, effectively or cost-effectively select pregnant or postpartum women with a suspected PE for diagnostic imaging. FUTURE WORK: New diagnostic technologies need to be developed to detect PE in pregnancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN21245595. FUNDING DETAILS: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 47. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The DiPEP (Diagnosis of PE in Pregnancy) biomarker study: An observational cohort study augmented with additional cases to determine the diagnostic utility of biomarkers for suspected venous thromboembolism during pregnancy and puerperium.

This study aimed to estimate the diagnostic utility of biomarkers for suspected venous thromboembolism (VTE) in pregnancy and the puerperium. Research nurses/midwives collected blood samples from 310 pregnant/postpartum women with suspected pulmonary emboli (PE) and 18 with diagnosed deep vein thrombosis (DVT). VTE was diagnosed using imaging, treatment and adverse outcome data. Primary analysis was limited to women with conclusive imaging (36 with VTE, 247 without). The area under the curve (AUC) for each biomarker was: activated partial thromboplastin time 0·669 (95% confidence interval 0·570-0·768), B-type natriuretic peptide 0·549 (0·453-0·645), C-reactive protein 0·542 (0·445-0·639), Clauss fibrinogen 0·589 (0·476-0·701), D-Dimer (by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) 0·668 (0·561-0·776), near-patient D-Dimer 0·651 (0·545-0·758), mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide 0·524 (0·418-0·630), prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 0·562 (0·462-0·661), plasmin-antiplasmin complexes 0·639 (0·536-0·742), prothombin time 0·613 (0·508-0·718), thrombin generation lag time 0·702 (0·598-0·806), thrombin generation endogenous potential 0·559 (0·437-0·681), thrombin generation peak 0·596 (0·478-0·715), thrombin generation time to peak 0·655 (0·541-0·769), soluble tissue factor 0·531 (0·424-0·638) and serum troponin 0·597 (0·499-0·695). No diagnostically useful threshold for diagnosing or ruling out VTE was identified. In pregnancy and the puerperium, conventional and candidate biomarkers have no utility either for their negative or positive predictive value in the diagnosis of VTE.

PLEASANT: Preventing and Lessening Exacerbations of Asthma in School-age children Associated with a New Term - a cluster randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Asthma episodes and deaths are known to be seasonal. A number of reports have shown peaks in asthma episodes in school-aged children associated with the return to school following the summer vacation. A fall in prescription collection in the month of August has been observed, and was associated with an increase in the number of unscheduled contacts after the return to school in September. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of the study was to assess whether or not a NHS-delivered public health intervention reduces the September peak in unscheduled medical contacts. DESIGN: Cluster randomised trial, with the unit of randomisation being 142 NHS general practices, and trial-based economic evaluation. SETTING: Primary care. INTERVENTION: A letter sent (n = 70 practices) in July from their general practitioner (GP) to parents/carers of school-aged children with asthma to remind them of the importance of taking their medication, and to ensure that they have sufficient medication prior to the start of the new school year in September. The control group received usual care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the proportion of children aged 5-16 years who had an unscheduled medical contact in September 2013. Supporting end points included the proportion of children who collected prescriptions in August 2013 and unscheduled contacts through the following 12 months. Economic end points were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and costs from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. RESULTS: There is no evidence of effect in terms of unscheduled contacts in September. Among children aged 5-16 years, the odds ratio (OR) was 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 1.25] against the intervention. The intervention did increase the proportion of children collecting a prescription in August (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.64) as well as scheduled contacts in the same month (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.52). For the wider time intervals (September-December 2013 and September-August 2014), there is weak evidence of the intervention reducing unscheduled contacts. The intervention did not reduce unscheduled care in September, although it succeeded in increasing the proportion of children collecting prescriptions in August as well as having scheduled contacts in the same month. These unscheduled contacts in September could be a result of the intervention, as GPs may have wanted to see patients before issuing a prescription. The economic analysis estimated a high probability that the intervention was cost-saving, for baseline-adjusted costs, across both base-case and sensitivity analyses. There was no increase in QALYs. LIMITATION: The use of routine data led to uncertainty in the coding of medical contacts. The uncertainty was mitigated by advice from a GP adjudication panel. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention did not reduce unscheduled care in September, although it succeeded in increasing the proportion of children both collecting prescriptions and having scheduled contacts in August. After September there is weak evidence in favour of the intervention. The intervention had a favourable impact on costs but did not demonstrate any impact on QALYs. The results of the trial indicate that further work is required on assessing and understanding adherence, both in terms of using routine data to make quantitative assessments, and through additional qualitative interviews with key stakeholders such as practice nurses, GPs and a wider group of children with asthma. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN03000938. FUNDING DETAILS: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 93. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

The HubBLe Trial: haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) versus rubber band ligation (RBL) for symptomatic second- and third-degree haemorrhoids: a multicentre randomised controlled trial and health-economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Optimal surgical intervention for low-grade haemorrhoids is unknown. Rubber band ligation (RBL) is probably the most common intervention. Haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) is a novel alternative that may be more efficacious. OBJECTIVE: The comparison of HAL with RBL for the treatment of grade II/III haemorrhoids. DESIGN: A multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial. PERSPECTIVE: UK NHS and Personal Social Services. SETTING: 17 NHS Trusts. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥ 18 years presenting with grade II/III (second- and third-degree) haemorrhoids, including those who have undergone previous RBL. INTERVENTIONS: HAL with Doppler probe compared with RBL. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome - recurrence at 1 year post procedure; secondary outcomes - recurrence at 6 weeks; haemorrhoid severity score; European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, 5-level version (EQ-5D-5L); Vaizey incontinence score; pain assessment; complications; and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: A total of 370 participants entered the trial. At 1 year post procedure, 30% of the HAL group had evidence of recurrence compared with 49% after RBL [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42 to 3.51; p = 0.0005]. The main reason for the difference was the number of extra procedures required to achieve improvement/cure. If a single HAL is compared with multiple RBLs then only 37.5% recurred in the RBL arm (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.85 to 2.15; p = 0.20). Persistence of significant symptoms at 6 weeks was lower in both arms than at 1 year (9% HAL and 29% RBL), suggesting significant deterioration in both groups over the year. Symptom score, EQ-5D-5L and Vaizey score improved in both groups compared with baseline, but there was no difference between interventions. Pain was less severe and of shorter duration in the RBL group; most of the HAL group who had pain had mild to moderate pain, resolving by 3 weeks. Complications were low frequency and not significantly different between groups. It appeared that HAL was not cost-effective compared with RBL. In the base-case analysis, the difference in mean total costs was £1027 higher for HAL. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were higher for HAL; however, the difference was very small (0.01) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £104,427 per additional QALY. CONCLUSIONS: At 1 year, although HAL resulted in fewer recurrences, recurrence was similar to repeat RBL. Symptom scores, complications, EQ-5D-5L and continence score were no different, and patients had more pain in the early postoperative period after HAL. HAL is more expensive and unlikely to be cost-effective in terms of incremental cost per QALY. LIMITATIONS: Blinding of participants and site staff was not possible. FUTURE WORK: The incidence of recurrence may continue to increase with time. Further follow-up would add to the evidence regarding long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The polysymptomatic nature of haemorrhoidal disease requires a validated scoring system, and the data from this trial will allow further assessment of validity of such a system. These data add to the literature regarding treatment of grade II/III haemorrhoids. The results dovetail with results from the eTHoS study [Watson AJM, Hudson J, Wood J, Kilonzo M, Brown SR, McDonald A, et al. Comparison of stapled haemorrhoidopexy with traditional excisional surgery for haemorrhoidal disease (eTHoS): a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2016, in press.] comparing stapled haemorrhoidectomy with excisional haemorrhoidectomy. Combined results will allow expansion of analysis, allowing surgeons to tailor their treatment options to individual patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41394716. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 88. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Haemorrhoidal artery ligation versus rubber band ligation for the management of symptomatic second-degree and third-degree haemorrhoids (HubBLe): a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Optimum surgical intervention for low-grade haemorrhoids is unknown. Haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) has been proposed as an efficacious, safe therapy while rubber band ligation (RBL) is a commonly used outpatient treatment. We compared recurrence after HAL versus RBL in patients with grade II-III haemorrhoids. METHODS: This multicentre, open-label, parallel group, randomised controlled trial included patients from 17 acute UK NHS trusts. We screened patients aged 18 years or older presenting with grade II-III haemorrhoids. We excluded patients who had previously received any haemorrhoid surgery, more than one injection treatment for haemorrhoids, or more than one RBL procedure within 3 years before recruitment. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) to either RBL or HAL with Doppler. Randomisation was computer-generated and stratified by centre with blocks of random sizes. Allocation concealment was achieved using a web-based system. The study was open-label with no masking of participants, clinicians, or research staff. The primary outcome was recurrence at 1 year, derived from the patient's self-reported assessment in combination with resource use from their general practitioner and hospital records. Recurrence was analysed in patients who had undergone one of the interventions and been followed up for at least 1 year. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN41394716. FINDINGS: From Sept 9, 2012, to May 6, 2014, of 969 patients screened, 185 were randomly assigned to the HAL group and 187 to the RBL group. Of these participants, 337 had primary outcome data (176 in the RBL group and 161 in the HAL group). At 1 year post-procedure, 87 (49%) of 176 patients in the RBL group and 48 (30%) of 161 patients in the HAL group had haemorrhoid recurrence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·23, 95% CI 1·42-3·51; p=0·0005). The main reason for this difference was the number of extra procedures required to achieve improvement (57 [32%] participants in the RBL group and 23 [14%] participants in the HAL group had a subsequent procedure for haemorrhoids). The mean pain 1 day after procedure was 3·4 (SD 2·8) in the RBL group and 4·6 (2·8) in the HAL group (difference -1·2, 95% CI -1·8 to -0·5; p=0·0002); at day 7 the scores were 1·6 (2·3) in the RBL group and 3·1 (2·4) in the HAL group (difference -1·5, -2·0 to -1·0; p<0·0001). Pain scores did not differ between groups at 21 days and 6 weeks. 15 individuals reported serious adverse events requiring hospital admission. One patient in the RBL group had a pre-existing rectal tumour. Of the remaining 14 serious adverse events, 12 (7%) were among participants treated with HAL and two (1%) were in those treated with RBL. Six patients had pain (one treated with RBL, five treated with HAL), three had bleeding not requiring transfusion (one treated with RBL, two treated with HAL), two in the HAL group had urinary retention, two in the HAL group had vasovagal upset, and one in the HAL group had possible sepsis (treated with antibiotics). INTERPRETATION: Although recurrence after HAL was lower than a single RBL, HAL was more painful than RBL. The difference in recurrence was due to the need for repeat bandings in the RBL group. Patients (and health commissioners) might prefer such a course of RBL to the more invasive HAL. FUNDING: NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme.

Sample size requirements to estimate key design parameters from external pilot randomised controlled trials: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: External pilot or feasibility studies can be used to estimate key unknown parameters to inform the design of the definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT). However, there is little consensus on how large pilot studies need to be, and some suggest inflating estimates to adjust for the lack of precision when planning the definitive RCT. METHODS: We use a simulation approach to illustrate the sampling distribution of the standard deviation for continuous outcomes and the event rate for binary outcomes. We present the impact of increasing the pilot sample size on the precision and bias of these estimates, and predicted power under three realistic scenarios. We also illustrate the consequences of using a confidence interval argument to inflate estimates so the required power is achieved with a pre-specified level of confidence. We limit our attention to external pilot and feasibility studies prior to a two-parallel-balanced-group superiority RCT. RESULTS: For normally distributed outcomes, the relative gain in precision of the pooled standard deviation (SDp) is less than 10% (for each five subjects added per group) once the total sample size is 70. For true proportions between 0.1 and 0.5, we find the gain in precision for each five subjects added to the pilot sample is less than 5% once the sample size is 60. Adjusting the required sample sizes for the imprecision in the pilot study estimates can result in excessively large definitive RCTs and also requires a pilot sample size of 60 to 90 for the true effect sizes considered here. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that an external pilot study has at least 70 measured subjects (35 per group) when estimating the SDp for a continuous outcome. If the event rate in an intervention group needs to be estimated by the pilot then a total of 60 to 100 subjects is required. Hence if the primary outcome is binary a total of at least 120 subjects (60 in each group) may be required in the pilot trial. It is very much more efficient to use a larger pilot study, than to guard against the lack of precision by using inflated estimates.

The HubBLe trial: haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) versus rubber band ligation (RBL) for haemorrhoids.

BACKGROUND: Haemorrhoids (piles) are a very common condition seen in surgical clinics. After exclusion of more sinister causes of haemorrhoidal symptoms (rectal bleeding, perianal irritation and prolapse), the best option for treatment depends upon persistence and severity of the symptoms. Minor symptoms often respond to conservative treatment such as dietary fibre and reassurance. For more severe symptoms treatment such as rubber band ligation may be therapeutic and is a very commonly performed procedure in the surgical outpatient setting. Surgery is usually reserved for those who have more severe symptoms, as well as those who do not respond to non-operative therapy; surgical techniques include haemorrhoidectomy and haemorrhoidopexy. More recently, haemorrhoidal artery ligation has been introduced as a minimally invasive, non destructive surgical option.There are substantial data in the literature concerning efficacy and safety of 'rubber band ligation including multiple comparisons with other interventions, though there are no studies comparing it to haemorrhoidal artery ligation. A recent overview has been carried out by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence which concludes that current evidence shows haemorrhoidal artery ligation to be a safe alternative to haemorrhoidectomy and haemorrhoidopexy though it also highlights the lack of good quality data as evidence for the advantages of the technique. METHODS/DESIGN: The aim of this study is to establish the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of haemorrhoidal artery ligation compared with conventional rubber band ligation in the treatment of people with symptomatic second or third degree (Grade II or Grade III) haemorrhoids. DESIGN: A multi-centre, parallel group randomised controlled trial. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is patient-reported symptom recurrence twelve months following the intervention. Secondary outcome measures relate to symptoms, complications, health resource use, health related quality of life and cost effectiveness following the intervention. PARTICIPANTS: 350 patients with grade II or grade III haemorrhoids will be recruited in surgical departments in up to 14 NHS hospitals. RANDOMISATION: A multi-centre, parallel group randomised controlled trial. Block randomisation by centre will be used, with 175 participants randomised to each group. DISCUSSION: The results of the research will help inform future practice for the treatment of grade II and III haemorrhoids. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN41394716.

Derivation and validation of a risk adjustment model for predicting seven day mortality in emergency medical admissions: mixed prospective and retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate a risk adjustment model for predicting seven day mortality in emergency medical admissions, to test the value of including physiology and blood parameters, and to explore the constancy of the risk associated with each model variable across a range of settings. DESIGN: Mixed prospective and retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Nine acute hospitals (n = 3 derivation, n = 9 validation) and associated ambulance services in England, Australia, and Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with medical emergencies (n = 5644 derivation, n = 13,762 validation) who were alive and not in cardiac arrest when attended by an ambulance and either were admitted to hospital or died in the ambulance or emergency department. INTERVENTIONS: Data were either collected prospectively or retrospectively from routine sources and extraction from ambulance and emergency department records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Mortality up to seven days after hospital admission. RESULTS: In the derivation phase, age, ICD-10 code, active malignancy, Glasgow coma score, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, temperature, white cell count, and potassium and urea concentrations were independent predictors of seven day mortality. A model based on age and ICD-10 code alone had a C statistic of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.83), which increased to 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84) with the addition of active malignancy. This was markedly improved only when physiological variables (C statistic 0.87, 0.85 to 0.89), blood variables (0.87, 0.84 to 0.89), or both (0.90, 0.88 to 0.92) were added. In the validation phase, the models with physiology variables (physiology model) and all variables (full model) were tested in nine hospitals. Overall, the C statistics ranged across centres from 0.80 to 0.91 for the physiology model and from 0.83 to 0.93 for the full model. The rank order of hospitals based on adjusted mortality differed markedly from the rank order based on crude mortality. ICD-10 code, Glasgow coma score, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation, haemoglobin concentration, white cell count, and potassium, urea, creatinine, and glucose concentrations all had statistically significant interactions with hospital. CONCLUSION: A risk adjustment model for emergency medical admissions based on age, ICD-10 code, active malignancy, and routinely recorded physiological and blood variables can provide excellent discriminant value for seven day mortality across a range of settings. Using risk adjustment markedly changed hospitals' rankings. However, evidence was found that the association between key model variables and mortality were not constant. Supplementary data appendix.

Pure-tone auditory thresholds are not chronically elevated in multiple sclerosis.

Despite the fact that acute cases of multiple sclerosis (MS)-related pure-tone hearing loss have been reported in the literature, consensus is lacking as to the chronic influences of MS on pure-tone thresholds. Most studies examining such influences have been limited by small sample sizes, lack of statistical comparisons between patients and controls, and confounding of the hearing measure with influences from sex and age. To date, associations between pure-tone thresholds and central MS-related brain lesions have not been assessed. In this study, pure-tone thresholds ranging from 0.5 to 8 kHz were measured in 73 MS patients and 73 individually age- and gender-matched normal controls. In 63 MS patients, correlations were computed between the threshold values and MRI-determined lesion activity in 26 central brain regions. Although thresholds were strongly influenced by sex, age, and tonal frequency, no meaningful influences of MS were discerned. Moreover, no significant association between the threshold values and central MS-related lesion activity was evident in any brain region evaluated. This study, the largest on this topic to use carefully matched control subjects and the sole study to assess relationships between auditory thresholds and central MS-related lesions, strongly suggests that (a) MS is not chronically associated with pure-tone hearing loss and (b) pure-tone thresholds are unrelated to MS lesion activity in higher brain regions. These findings, along with general reports from the literature, support the concept that when MS-related hearing threshold deficits are found, they are episodic and primarily dependent on lesions within the eighth nerve or brainstem.

A breast cancer risk haplotype in the caspase-8 gene.

Recent large-scale studies have been successful in identifying common, low-penetrance variants associated with common cancers. One such variant in the caspase-8 (CASP8) gene, D302H (rs1045485), has been confirmed to be associated with breast cancer risk, although the functional effect of this polymorphism (if any) is not yet clear. In order to further map the CASP8 gene with respect to breast cancer susceptibility, we performed extensive haplotype analyses using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) chosen to tag all common variations in the gene (tSNP). We used a staged study design based on 3,200 breast cancer and 3,324 control subjects from the United Kingdom, Utah, and Germany. Using a haplotype-mining algorithm in the UK cohort, we identified a four-SNP haplotype that was significantly associated with breast cancer and that was superior to any other single or multi-locus combination (P=8.0 x 10(-5)), with a per allele odds ratio and 95% confidence interval of 1.30 (1.12-1.49). The result remained significant after adjustment for the multiple testing inherent in mining techniques (false discovery rate, q=0.044). As expected, this haplotype includes the D302H locus. Multicenter analyses on a subset of the tSNPs yielded consistent results. This risk haplotype is likely to carry one or more underlying breast cancer susceptibility alleles, making it an excellent candidate for resequencing in homozygous individuals. An understanding of the mode of action of these alleles will aid risk assessment and may lead to the identification of novel treatment targets in breast cancer.

Identification of a novel susceptibility locus for juvenile idiopathic arthritis by genome-wide association analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is a chronic rheumatic disease of childhood. Two well-established genetic factors known to contribute to JIA susceptibility, HLA and PTPN22, account for less than half of the genetic susceptibility to disease; therefore, additional genetic factors have yet to be identified. The purpose of this study was to perform a systematic search of the genome to identify novel susceptibility loci for JIA. METHODS: A genome-wide association study using Affymetrix GeneChip 100K arrays was performed in a discovery cohort (279 cases and 184 controls). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showing the most significant differences between cases and controls were then genotyped in a validation sample of cases (n = 321) and controls, combined with control data from the 1958 UK birth cohort (n = 2,024). In one region in which association was confirmed, fine-mapping was performed (654 cases and 1,847 controls). RESULTS: Of the 112 SNPs that were significantly associated with JIA in the discovery cohort, 6 SNPs were associated with JIA in the independent validation cohort. The most strongly associated SNP mapped to the HLA region, while the second strongest association was with a SNP within the VTCN1 gene. Fine-mapping of that gene was performed, and 10 SNPs were found to be associated with JIA. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to successfully apply a SNP-based genome-wide association approach to the investigation of JIA. The replicated association with markers in the VTCN1 gene defined an additional susceptibility locus for JIA and implicates a novel pathway in the pathogenesis of this chronic disease of childhood.

Angiotensinogen gene T235 variant: a marker for the development of persistent microalbuminuria in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

AIM: We examined genetic polymorphisms in the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) coding for angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) insertion/deletion (I/D) for angiotensinogen (AGT) M235T and angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AGTR1) A1166C as predictors for the development of microalbuminuria (MA) in children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). METHODS: Four hundred fifty-three (215 males, 238 females) T1DM children [median (interquartile range): age, 16.7 years (13.9-18.3); diabetes duration, 6.9 years (3.3-10.8); age at diagnosis, 9.1 years (5.8-11.8)] were followed prospectively from diagnosis until the development of MA (two of three consecutive overnight urine samples with albumin excretion rates of > or =20 and <200 microg/min). Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional multivariate model estimated the probability of developing MA and the relative risk for MA among different variables. RESULTS: MA developed in 41 (9.1%) subjects. The frequencies of genotypes were as follows: ACE-II 112 (25%), ACE-ID 221 (49%), and ACE-DD 117 (26%) (n=450); AGT-MM 144 (32%), AGT-MT 231 (51%), and AGT-TT 77 (17%) (n=452); AGTR1-AA 211 (47%), AGTR1-AC 204 (45%), and AGTR1-CC 37 (8%) (n=452). The cumulative risk for the development of MA was higher in ACE-DD versus ACE-ID/II groups (log-rank test, P=.05), and a trend was noticed when AGT-TT was compared to AGT-MT/MM groups (log-rank test, P=.08). AGT-TT polymorphism conferred a fourfold increased risk for MA compared to AGT-MM/MT (hazard ratio=3.8; 95% confidence interval=1.43-10.3; P=.008). INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that RAS gene polymorphism at AGT M235T is a strong predictor for early MA in young T1DM subjects.

Genetic analyses in a sample of individuals with high or low BMD shows association with multiple Wnt pathway genes.

UNLABELLED: Using a moderate-sized cohort selected with extreme BMD (n = 344; absolute value BMD, 1.5-4.0), significant association of several members of the Wnt signaling pathway with bone densitometry measures was shown. This confirms that extreme truncate selection is a powerful design for quantitative trait association studies of bone phenotypes. INTRODUCTION: Although the high heritability of BMD variation has long been established, few genes have been conclusively shown to affect the variation of BMD in the general population. Extreme truncate selection has been proposed as a more powerful alternative to unselected cohort designs in quantitative trait association studies. We sought to test these theoretical predictions in studies of the bone densitometry measures BMD, BMC, and femoral neck area, by investigating their association with members of the Wnt pathway, some of which have previously been shown to be associated with BMD in much larger cohorts, in a moderate-sized extreme truncate selected cohort (absolute value BMD Z-scores = 1.5-4.0; n = 344). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ninety-six tag-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) lying in 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes were selected to tag common genetic variation (minor allele frequency [MAF] > 5% with an r(2) > 0.8) within 5 kb of all exons of 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes. The genes studied included LRP1, LRP5, LRP6, Wnt3a, Wnt7b, Wnt10b, SFRP1, SFRP2, DKK1, DKK2, FZD7, WISP3, and SOST. Three hundred forty-four cases with either high or low BMD were genotyped by Illumina Goldengate microarray SNP genotyping methods. Association was tested either by Cochrane-Armitage test for dichotomous variables or by linear regression for quantitative traits. RESULTS: Strong association was shown with LRP5, polymorphisms of which have previously been shown to influence total hip BMD (minimum p = 0.0006). In addition, polymorphisms of the Wnt antagonist, SFRP1, were significantly associated with BMD and BMC (minimum p = 0.00042). Previously reported associations of LRP1, LRP6, and SOST with BMD were confirmed. Two other Wnt pathway genes, Wnt3a and DKK2, also showed nominal association with BMD. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that polymorphisms of multiple members of the Wnt pathway are associated with BMD variation. Furthermore, this study shows in a practical trial that study designs involving extreme truncate selection and moderate sample sizes can robustly identify genes of relevant effect sizes involved in BMD variation in the general population. This has implications for the design of future genome-wide studies of quantitative bone phenotypes relevant to osteoporosis.

Data for Genetic Analysis Workshop (GAW) 15 Problem 2, genetic causes of rheumatoid arthritis and associated traits.

For Genetic Analysis Workshop 15 Problem 2, we organized data from several ongoing studies designed to identify genetic and environmental risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis. Data were derived from the North American Rheumatoid Arthritis Consortium (NARAC), collaboration among Canadian researchers, the European Consortium on Rheumatoid Arthritis Families (ECRAF), and investigators from Manchester, England. All groups used a common standard for defining rheumatoid arthritis, but NARAC also further selected for a more severe phenotype in the probands. Genotyping and family structures for microsatellite-based linkage analysis were provided from all centers. In addition, all centers but ECRAF have genotyped families for linkage analysis using SNPs and these data were additionally provided. NARAC also had additional data from a dense genotyping analysis of a region of chromosome 18 and results from candidate gene studies, which were provided. Finally, smoking influences risk for rheumatoid arthritis, and data were provided from the NARAC study on this behavior as well as some additional phenotypes measuring severity. Several questions could be evaluated using the data that were provided. These include comparing linkage analysis using single-nucleotide polymorphisms versus microsatellites and identifying credible regions of linkage outside the HLA region on chromosome 6p13, which has been extensively documented; evaluating the joint effects of smoking with genetic factors; and identifying more homogenous subsets of families for whom genetic susceptibility might be stronger, so that linkage and association studies may be more efficiently conducted.

Association between osteopontin and human abdominal aortic aneurysm.

OBJECTIVES: In vitro and animal studies have implicated osteopontin (OPN) in the pathogenesis of aortic aneurysm. The relationship between serum concentration of OPN and variants of the OPN gene with human abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) was investigated. METHODS AND RESULTS: OPN genotypes were examined in 4227 subjects in which aortic diameter and clinical risk factors were measured. Serum OPN was measured by ELISA in two cohorts of 665 subjects. The concentration of serum OPN was independently associated with the presence of AAA. Odds ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for upper compared with lower OPN tertiles in predicting presence of AAA were 2.23 (1.29 to 3.85, P=0.004) for the population cohort and 4.08 (1.67 to 10.00, P=0.002) for the referral cohort after adjusting for other risk factors. In 198 patients with complete follow-up of aortic diameter at 3 years, initial serum OPN predicted AAA growth after adjustment for other risk factors (standardized coefficient 0.24, P=0.001). The concentration of OPN in the aortic wall was greater in patients with small AAAs (30 to 50 mm) than those with aortic occlusive disease alone. There was no association between five single nucleotide polymorphisms or haplotypes of the OPN gene and aortic diameter or AAA expansion. CONCLUSIONS: Serum and tissue concentrations of OPN are associated with human AAA. We found no relationship between variation of the OPN gene and AAA. OPN may be a useful biomarker for AAA presence and growth.

Fine mapping of genes within the IDDM8 region in rheumatoid arthritis.

The IDDM8 region on chromosome 6q27, first identified as a susceptibility locus for type 1 diabetes, has previously been linked and associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The region contains a number of potential candidate genes, including programmed cell death 2 (PDCD2), the proteosome subunit beta type 1 (PSMB1), delta-like ligand 1 (DLL-1) and TATA box-binding protein (TBP) amongst others. The aim of this study was to fine map the IDDM8 region on chromosome 6q27, focusing on the genes in the region, to identify polymorphisms that may contribute to susceptibility to RA and potentially to other autoimmune diseases. Validated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; n = 65) were selected from public databases from the 330 kb region of IDDM8. These were genotyped using Sequenom MassArray genotyping technology in two datasets; the test dataset comprised 180 RA cases and 180 controls. We tested 50 SNPs for association with RA and any significant associations were genotyped in a second dataset of 174 RA cases and 192 controls, and the datasets were combined before analysis. Association analysis was performed by chi-square test implemented in Stata software and linkage disequilibrium and haplotype analysis was performed using Helix tree version 4.1. There was initial weak evidence of association, with RA, of a number of SNPs around the loc154449 putative gene and within the KIAA1838 gene; however, these associations were not significant in the combined dataset. Our study has failed to detect evidence of association with any of the known genes mapping to the IDDM8 locus with RA.

Linkage analysis of rheumatoid arthritis in US and UK families reveals interactions between HLA-DRB1 and loci on chromosomes 6q and 16p.

OBJECTIVE: HLA is the most strongly associated locus in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), accounting for up to one-third of the genetic contribution. Conditioning on the effect of true disease loci such as HLA can lead to increased power to detect effects at other loci and, in addition, allows investigation of the underlying disease models, including interactions. The aim of this study was to detect susceptibility loci for RA by conditioning on HLA in a large sample of affected sibling pairs (ASPs) and to test for evidence of interaction between novel loci and HLA. METHODS: Genotype data from 3 whole-genome linkage scans for RA in a US population and a UK population were pooled, resulting in a combined data set of 886 ASPs. This pooling of data increased the power to detect loci showing low levels of heterogeneity. Nonparametric linkage analysis was performed to identify regions of interest. Joint 2-locus analysis was then performed for HLA and each of the loci that demonstrated evidence of linkage in the 886 ASPs. RESULTS: Evidence for linkage was most significant at HLA (P = 4 x 10(-16)), with 7 non-HLA loci showing some evidence for linkage (P = 0.05-0.003). Joint modeling of these loci with HLA provided evidence for linkage at a genome-wide significance level for loci on 6q (P = 2.7 x 10(-6)) and 16p (P = 2 x 10(-4)). CONCLUSION: These data provide the most convincing evidence to date that 6q and 16p harbor susceptibility genes. In addition, these loci may interact with HLA, facilitating the search for candidate genes within this region.

In adult onset myositis, the presence of interstitial lung disease and myositis specific/associated antibodies are governed by HLA class II haplotype, rather than by myositis subtype.

The aim of this study was to investigate HLA class II associations in polymyositis (PM) and dermatomyositis (DM), and to determine how these associations influence clinical and serological differences. DNA samples were obtained from 225 UK Caucasian idiopathic inflammatory myopathy patients (PM = 117, DM = 108) and compared with 537 randomly selected UK Caucasian controls. All cases had also been assessed for the presence of related malignancy and interstitial lung disease (ILD), and a number of myositis-specific/myositis-associated antibodies (MSAs/MAAs). Subjects were genotyped for HLA-DRB1, DQA1 and DQB1. HLA-DRB1*03, DQA1*05 and DQB1*02 were associated with an increased risk for both PM and DM. The HLA-DRB1*03-DQA1*05-DQB1*02 haplotype demonstrated strong association with ILD, irrespective of myositis subtype or presence of anti-aminoacyl-transfer RNA synthetase antibodies. The HLA-DRB1*07-DQA1*02-DQB1*02 haplotype was associated with risk for anti-Mi-2 antibodies, and discriminated PM from DM (odds ratio 0.3, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.6), even in anti-Mi-2 negative patients. Other MSA/MAAs showed specific associations with other HLA class II haplotypes, irrespective of myositis subtype. There were no genotype, haplotype or serological associations with malignancy. The HLA-DRB1*03-DQA1*05-DQB1*02 haplotype associations appear to not only govern disease susceptibility in Caucasian PM/DM patients, but also phenotypic features common to PM/DM. Though strongly associated with anti-Mi-2 antibodies, the HLA-DRB1*07-DQA1*02-DQB1*02 haplotype shows differential associations with PM/DM disease susceptibility. In conclusion, these findings support the notion that myositis patients with differing myositis serology have different immunogenetic profiles, and that these profiles may define specific myositis subtypes.